The winter of 2023-24 has already been full of surprises on the Island and there’s still a month and a half left.
What happens next even has the most seasoned weather observers and forecasters wondering.
“Above normal temperatures driven by a warm El Nino ocean current during early January gave way to below normal values during the middle part of the month when the current appeared to collapse with the arrival of an Arctic high pressure system from Alaska,” noted Chris Carss, a weather observer/recorder for Environment and Climate Change Canada at his Chemainus home. “Then the El Nino suddenly bounced back as the Arctic high departed and the temperatures warmed up during late January to levels that were sometimes even higher than before.”
In summarizing the month, Carss indicated Jan. 1-12 brought near- to above-normal temperatures with periods of rain gradually changing to snow with below-normal temperatures; Jan. 13-16 was dry with below-normal temperatures and a mix of sun and cloud; Jan. 17 and 18 brought light snow with below-normal temperatures; and Jan. 19-31 saw a return to periods of rain but this time with near-normal temperatures gradually rising to strongly above-normal values.
A breakdown of Carss’ statistics for January is as follows:
Temperature
Mean maximum 6.0 C, normal 6.8 C.
Mean minimum 2.0 C, normal 2.3 C.
Extreme maximum 16 C on Jan. 29.
Extreme minimum -11 C on Jan. 13 and 14.
Precipitation
Total days with precipitation (including mixed weather days) 23, normal 20.
Total accumulated rainfall 281.0 mm, normal 231.1 mm
Total accumulated snowfall 41.9 cm; normal 21.0 cm.
Other Statistics
Days mostly or partly sunny and dry 8, normal 5.
Days with mixed weather 5.
Total days mostly or partly sunny (including mixed weather days) 13.
On Thetis Island, weather observer Keith Rush recorded 276.5 mm of precipitation at his Foster Point Road residence that he’s jokingly calling Foster Point River temporarily.
The precipitation total is nearly double the 149.6 mm recorded in January 2023. The average January on Thetis has 180.5 mm.
As we get into February, Carss is expecting less precipitation than January with temperatures averaging near-normal as the warming effects of El Nino fade for a second time since the beginning of January.
“Rain and perhaps some snow can be expected on about half the days of the month with only occasional sunny breaks as usual for this time of year,” he added. “The frequency of rain should be near-normal, but it will fall mostly – but not entirely – in dribs and drabs so that the total accumulated amount will likely be below-normal, at least through the middle of the month.
“Longer range outlooks still tend to be less reliable than the two-week forecast, so given the surprises we’ve already had this year so far, a return to wetter weather in later February cannot yet be ruled out.”