Statistics Canada building and signs are pictured in Ottawa on Wednesday, July 3, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

Statistics Canada building and signs are pictured in Ottawa on Wednesday, July 3, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

Better-than-expected Jan. growth a good sign for pandemic’s third wave: economists

The shadow hanging over the economy now is COVID-19 and its variants that are pushing up caseloads

The Canadian economy grew 0.7 per cent in January in the face of severe public health restrictions, and appears to have grown almost as much in February, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.

January’s reading for real gross domestic product compared with a gain of 0.1 per cent in December, and topped the data agency’s preliminary estimate for the month of 0.5 per cent.

It was the ninth consecutive monthly increase since the plunge in the economy last year at the start of the pandemic in March and April when workers were ordered home and non-essential businesses forced to close.

Almost one year later, Statistics Canada said that total economic activity was still about three per cent below the February level last year, before the pandemic began.

The agency’s preliminary estimate for February this year showed growth of 0.5 per cent for the month.

TD Bank senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam said January was a solid month for the Canadian economy, despite the tighter public health restrictions in Ontario and Quebec, reflecting what he called the “growing resilience of the economy to the pandemic.”

“With Statistics Canada projecting continued growth in February, the first quarter of 2021 is shaping out to be a very good one for Canada,” Thanabalasingam said.

The Bank of Canada recently revised its expectations for the first quarter of the year, saying earlier this month that the economy should overall grow, rather than contract as it expected in January.

With early indicators suggesting improved business and consumer confidence for March, total annualized growth for the quarter appears to be on track to hit or exceed five per cent, RBC economist Claire Fan wrote in a note.

The shadow hanging over the economy now is COVID-19 and its variants that are pushing up caseloads across the country, placing pressure on provinces to tighten restrictions once again.

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said the better-than-expected economic picture in January, even as the country shed more than 200,000 jobs, suggests sectors will be able to manage through any third-wave lockdowns or restrictions in the coming weeks.

But he cautioned that some sectors are going to feel the pain more than others. Arts and entertainment is half of what it was one year ago, he said, while hotels and restaurants are about 40 per cent below pre-pandemic activity.

Large sectors like construction and manufacturing are down about one per cent from a year ago, Porter said.

“This is the ultimate definition of this so called K-shaped recovery, where the industries at the upper end of the K are basically almost all the way back to where they were before the pandemic began, and those at the bottom of the K are desperately weak,” Porter said in an interview.

“If there’s good news, when things are eventually able to reopen again, you’re going to see a spectacular bounce in those sectors that remain 40 or 50 per cent below pre pandemic levels.”

The growth in January came as goods-producing industries rose 1.5 per cent, while services-producing industries added 0.4 per cent.

Statistics Canada said the wholesale trade sector rose 3.9 per cent in January, more than offsetting a 1.5 per cent contraction in December.

The manufacturing sector grew 1.9 per cent in January to offset a decline of 0.7 per cent in December, while the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector grew 2.7 per cent, its fifth consecutive month of growth.

ALSO READ: B.C.’s iconic West Coast Trail to re-open to visitors in June 2021

Craig Wong and Jordan Press, The Canadian Press


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Want to support local journalism during the pandemic? Make a donation here.

Coronaviruseconomy

Just Posted

Stz’uminus Elder George Harris, Ladysmith Mayor Aaron Stone, and Stz’uminus Chief Roxanne Harris opened the ceremony. (Cole Schisler photo)
Red dresses to be hung from Ladysmith to Oyster Bay, showing solidarity against racism

Leaders from Stz’uminus First Nation and the Town of Ladysmith hung new dresses on Sat. April 17

Orca 1
Orcas: Our Shared Future finally surfaces at Royal B.C. Museum

Museum dives into the world of the killer whale as delayed feature exhibition now open

Nanaimo playwright Anne Nesbitt is presenting a staged reading of her play about Indigenous conservationist Gertrude Bernard, also known as Anahareo (from left). (Photo courtesy Andrew Nesbitt/Riding Mountain National Park)
Island playwright tells the story of Indigenous woman who ‘saved the beaver’

Anne Nesbitt presents ‘Anahareo’ as part of TheatreOne staged reading series

Ladysmith’s Taylor Walters received the Terry Fox Humanitarian Award and is hard at work pursuing her Bachelor’s Degree in Human-Computer Interaction at Quest University. (Submitted photo)
Island teen’s passion for science and technology equality helps fund her education

Ladysmith’s Taylor Walters one of 16 Canadians honoured with Terry Fox Humanitarian Award

Danita Bilozaze and her daughter Dani in Comox. Photo by Karen McKinnon
Island woman makes historic name change for truth and reconciliation

Becomes first person in Canada to be issued new passport under the TRC Calls to Action

Vancouver resident Beryl Pye was witness to a “concerning,” spontaneous dance party that spread throughout social groups at Kitsilano Beach on April 16. (Screen grab/Beryl Pye)
VIDEO: Dance party erupts at Vancouver’s Kitsilano Beach to the dismay of onlookers

‘It was a complete disregard for current COVID-19 public health orders,’ says Vancouver resident Beryl Pye

The B.C. Centre for Disease Control has listed Harbour Air and Air Canada flights to and from Nanaimo, from April 3, 4 and 12, on its list of flights with COVID-19. (News Bulletin file)
COVID-19 cases reported for Nanaimo flights, says disease control centre

Nanaimo flights for April 3, 4 and 12 listed on BCCDC’s list of flights with COVID-19

A Parksville Fire Department’s firefighter hoses down the facade of a Parksville Heritage Centre building after it caught fire on Friday afternoon (April 16). (Michael Briones photo)
Fire crews, roofers work to douse building fire in Parksville

Damage was minimal and workers escaped injury

Lord Tweedsmuir’s Tremmel States-Jones jumps a player and the goal line to score a touchdown against the Kelowna Owls in 2019. The face of high school football, along with a majority of other high school sports, could significantly change if a new governance proposal is passed at the B.C. School Sports AGM May 1. (Malin Jordan)
Power struggle: New governance model proposed for B.C. high school sports

Most commissions are against the new model, but B.C. School Sports (BCSS) and its board is in favour

Pall Bearers carrying the coffin of the Duke of Edinburgh, followed by the Prince of Wales, left and Princess Anne, right, into St George’s Chapel for his funeral, at Windsor Castle, in Windsor, England, Saturday April 17, 2021. (Danny Lawson/Pool via AP)
Trudeau announces $200K donation to Duke of Edinburgh award as Prince Philip laid to rest

A tribute to the late prince’s ‘remarkable life and his selfless service,’ the Prime Minister said Saturday

B.C. homeowners are being urged to take steps to prepare for the possibility of a flood by moving equipment and other assets to higher ground. (J.R. Rardon)
‘Entire province faces risk’: B.C. citizens urged to prepare for above-average spring flooding

Larger-than-normal melting snowpack poses a threat to the province as warmer weather touches down

Vancouver-based Doubleview Gold Corp. is developing claims in an area north of Telegraph Creek that occupies an important place in Tahltan oral histories, said Chad Norman Day, president of the Tahltan Central Government. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO)
B.C. Indigenous nation opposes mineral exploration in culturally sensitive area

There’s “no way” the Tahltan would ever support a mine there, says Chad Norman Day, president of its central government

Stz’uminus Elder George Harris, Ladysmith Mayor Aaron Stone, and Stz’uminus Chief Roxanne Harris opened the ceremony. (Cole Schisler photo)
Symbolic red dresses rehung along B.C. highway after vandals tore them down

Leaders from Stz’uminus First Nation and the Town of Ladysmith hung new dresses on Sat. April 17

A Western toadlet crosses the centre line of Elk View Road in Chilliwack on Aug. 26, 2010. A tunnel underneath the road has since been installed to help them migrate cross the road. Saturday, April 24 is Save the Frogs Day. (Jenna Hauck/ Progress File)
Unofficial holidays: Here’s what people are celebrating for the week of April 18 to 24

Save the Frogs Day, Love Your Thighs Day and Scream Day are all coming up this week

Most Read